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Open Access Article

International Journal of Pediatrics Research. 2022; 2: (1) ; 12-19 ; DOI: 10.12208/j. ijped.20220004.

Analysis of global infant mortality rate based on “World Health Staistics 2015”
基于《世界卫生统计2015》资料全球婴儿死亡率分析

作者: 李鸿斌*, 贲宇

如皋市妇幼保健计划生育服务中心

南京大学医学院2019级临床医学专业 江苏南京

*通讯作者: 李鸿斌,单位:如皋市妇幼保健计划生育服务中心;

发布时间: 2022-06-29 总浏览量: 301

摘要

目的 婴儿死亡率(IMR)千年发展目标完成情况对后疫情时期实现2030全球可持续发展儿童死亡率目标的启示。方法 以《世界卫生统计2015》提供的IMR和主要死因构成比为基础,采用1990~2013年IMR下降幅度评估千年目标完成情况,通过对2000年与2013年阶段性比较分析IMR变化规律,采用双变量Pearson相关分析判断IMR与“感染非感染性疾病比值”、人均GDP的相关性。结果 截止2013年,在194个世界卫生组织会员国中,40个(20.62%)国家实现了IMR千年发展目标。2000年与2013年比较,六大洲、低和高死亡率组IMR差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),中等死亡率组差异无统计学意义(P>0.05);中、低死亡率组“感染非感染性疾病比值”差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),高死亡率组差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。低与中、中与高死亡率组“感染非感染性疾病比值”、IMR及平均下降量比较差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。全球IMR地区性差异明显,非洲IMR均值最高,欧洲最小,大洋洲、南美洲、北美洲居中,亚洲渐趋居中水平。2000年全球IMR比重为68.87%,2013年为73.74%,各国IMR比重与U5MR呈高度负相关关系(r2000年=-0.893,r2013年=-0.809,P<0.05)。各国IMR与“感染非感染性疾病比值”呈高度正相关关系(r2000年=0.913,r2013年=0.901,P<0.05),与人均GDP呈低度负相关关系(r2000年=-0.488,r2013年=-0.467,P<0.05)。结论 实现全球可持续发展5岁以下儿童死亡率目标的关键是积极有效降低IMR。防控重点应放在非洲和亚洲。高、中、低IMR国家的死因构成各有差别,经济增长对IMR的影响亦各不相同。建议适时调整防控策略,并加大投入力度。

关键词: 婴儿死亡率;世界卫生统计;感染性疾病;人均GDP

Abstract

Objective To enlighten the achievement of the millennium development goal of infant mortality (IMR) for achieving the 2030 goal of sustainable child mortality in the post covid-19 epidemic period.
Methods Based on the IMR and the proportion of main causes of death in the “World Health Statistics 2015”, the Millennium Development Goals of the decline of IMR from 1990 to 2013 was assessed, the IMR was analyzed by comparison between 2000 and 2013. Bivariate Pearson correlation analysis was used to determine the correlation between mortality and the ratio of infection to non infectious diseases and GDP per person in IMR.
Results By 2013, in 194 WHO member states, the IMR in 40 (20.62%) countries achieved the millennium development goals. Comparison between 2000 and 2013, there was significant difference between low and high mortality groups in six continents (P<0.05), there was no significant difference between the moderate death groups (P>0.05), there was no significant difference in the ratio of infection to non infectious diseases between the middle and low mortality groups (P>0.05), however there was significant difference between the high mortality groups (P <0.05). There was significant difference in the average decline of IMR and the ratio of non infectious diseases between low and medium, middle and high mortality groups (P<0.05). The Global IMR had significant regional differences, the highest IMR was in Africa, the lowest IMR was in Europe, the medium IMR was in North America, Oceania, South America, Asia was becoming the middle level. IMR proportion was 68.87% in 2000, it was 73.74% in 2013, The IMR proportion was highly correlated with U5MR in every country (r2000年=-0.893,r2013年=-0.809,P<0.05). The IMR was highly correlated with the ratio of infection to non-infectious diseases in every country (r2000年=0.913,r2013年=0.901,P<0.05), and it was low negatively correlated with GDP per capita (r2000年=0.488,r2013年=0.467,P<0.05).
Conclusion  s The key to achieving the goal of global sustainable development of under five mortality is to actively and effectively reduce IMR. Prevention and control should focus on Africa and Asia. The causes of death in high, medium and low IMR countries are different, and the impact of economic growth on IMR is also different. We suggest to adjust prevention strategies at the right time, and increase investment.

Key words: infant mortality rate; world health statistics; infectious diseases; GDP per capita

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引用本文

李鸿斌, 贲宇 基于《世界卫生统计2015》资料全球婴儿死亡率分析[J]. 国际儿科研究杂志, 2022; 2: (1) : 12-19.